Book Market Statistics

The Swedish book market – statistics and trends

For ten years, beginning in 1997, the Swedish book market recorded a healthy and steady growth that filled publishers in many countries with envy. It was – in retrospect – a happy period. Publishers’ sales grew by 45 % between 1997 and 2007. This rapid growth inspired and was supported by an increase in the annual number of new books by 35 %.

In 2008 this happy period came to an abrupt end, and over the last two years – 2008 and 2009 - book sales have gone down 10 %. By most signs, sales will decline even further in 2010.

This has put the Swedish book trade in a state of confusion and reappraisal, resembling what newspapers, magazines and other printed media went through a few years ago. In this new situation, it is easy to forget that book sales in Sweden are still high, on the same level as they were only five years ago. Negative growth is difficult to cope with for the book publishing industry, just as it is for any other industry.

When analyzing the forces behind the ups and downs of the Swedish book trade, two factors stand out.

One is the unexpected reduction of VAT on books from 25% to 6% in 2002. This was an immense injection for the book trade. It made all books 15 % cheaper overnight and it was a major news item for several months, promoting books better than any advertising could have done.

The other factor is the rapid growth of internet sales. In just over ten years, the two major internet book shops Adlibris and Bokus grew from nothing to a combined share of 20 % of the total book market and one third of all book store sales. When you add Amazon’s sales in Sweden and the many small net shops, the share of book sales going through the net has reached a level very few people thought would be possible ten years ago.

The traditional bookshops have taken double blows. They have not only lost a large share of the market. The growth of net shops has been achieved by intense price competition, forcing traditional bookstores and book clubs to reduce their margins more than they can afford. The book buyers are the real winners with easy access and low prices.

The full effect of this shift has hit the traditional outlets with a delay. When the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, it came on top of the structural change already on its way, and it hit the traditional book shops hard. Shrinking share of a shrinking market at reduced margins is the challenge for many booksellers today. No wonder that many of them suffer!

For publishers, the emergence of strong internet bookshops has been a blessing,
particularly for the small publishers who are at a disadvantage in competing for shelf space in the chain stores. It has also supported backlist sales and niche non-fiction publishers. But today most publishers will agree that it is a mixed blessing in view of the negative effects on all other sales channels.

To sum up the economic part of this presentation, the Swedish book trade is in a state of transition at the moment, particularly in terms of distribution. Many of the booksellers – both the chains and the indies – are searching for a new strategy for survival in the changed landscape. I believe quite a few, particularly small stores, are looking for new owners. And among the publishers, there is a growing concern over the long term effects of a book market with fewer and smaller bookshops in the high streets.

Another important aspect of the change is the growing presence of publishers in the retail trade. The Bonnier Group, Sweden’s leading publisher, owns the number one internet bookshop Adlibris, along with the major book clubs. Norstedts, the main challenger, is part of the Swedish Coop movement, which owns the dominant book store chain Akademibokhandeln and the number two internet bookshop Bokus. Bokia, the second large book store chain, has the third big publisher Natur & Kultur as a 40 % owner.

This strong vertical integration is new to the Swedish book trade and nobody knows for sure what impact this will have in the long run. It is good for the industry that booksellers have strong and stable owners. But for the small and midsize publishers, it is not unproblematic that their customers are owned by their competitors.

With all the problems on the table, I think it is fair to say that prospects for the book trade in Sweden are far from gloomy. It is hard going at the moment, but in the long run I am sure publishing will be a good business. The consumer market for books is basically strong. So are reading habits. And the high internet use provides a solid infrastructure for e-books, downloadable audio books and various forms of on-line publishing. But the road immediately ahead of us is probably a bit bumpy. There is still no clear picture of royalties, pricing models and sales channels but that will only slow down, not halt, the digital development.

The economic downturn has not left the publishers’ front lists unaffected. From a peak in 2007 the number of new printed books was down 15 % in 2009 and is down further in 2010. Bonniers and Norstedts have cut their lists and there is a widespread sense of uncertainty about the market development. The publishing industry is resilient and several of the authors dropped by large houses are picked up by smaller publishers. But all in all, there is a downward trend, affecting in particular translated books. The difficulty of selling translated fiction has been widely discussed the last two years, but the same problem faces non-fiction and children’s books.

While many of the graphs of general publishing have gone down the last two years, one has gone right up: Export sales. Incomes from foreign rights have more than doubled in the last two years and it is not difficult to work out where they come from. Stieg Larsson, Henning Mankell, Camilla Läckberg, Håkan Nesser and several other Swedish writers of thrillers and crime stories have put their mark on bestseller lists both in Sweden and in several other countries.

If there was such a thing as balance of trade for the book industry, it would have changed dramatically the last ten years. This has been good for Swedish publishers and for the lucky and successful authors. Everybody isn’t pleased with the dominance of crime stories on the Swedish bestseller lists, but they bring needed money and readers to the book trade.

Kjell Bohlund, former chairman, Swedish Publishers' Association
8 November 2010

Book Market Statistics from 2007 - 2009

Since 1973/1974, it has been the practice of the Swedish Publishers’ Association to produce detailed statistical reports covering the member publishers’ publications and sales. Thus, in this report the Association presents Swedish book market statistics for the 37th consecutive year.

For 2009, Swedish Publishers’ Association members have reported a decline in the number of titles published, as well as declining sales. Sales to retailers fell by 3%, and the number of new titles dropped by 3.5%. For about a decade, publishers enjoyed continuously growing sales. However, that positive trend was broken in 2008. For 2009, the decline seems to be levelling off, in economic terms at least, and the provisional statistics for the first four months of 2010 (based on data from the five biggest publishers/publishing groups belonging to the Swedish
Publishers’ Association), even indicate an increase in sales.

Read the statistics for 2010 in English

Read the statistics for 2009 in English

Read the statistics for 2008 in English

Read the statistics for 2007 in English